China resumes US soybean purchases, providing cautious relief for American farmers
China's state-owned grain trader, Cofco Group, has resumed large-scale purchases of American soybeans, securing nearly 840,000 metric tons for shipment in December and January from Gulf Coast and Pacific Northwest ports. This marks the most significant inflow of Chinese soybean imports from the US since early 2025, pushing Chicago soybean futures to their highest level in over a year. The move signals China's intent to uphold the trade deal commitments made at the recent Busan summit between Presidents Trump and Xi, despite previous months of negligible US soybean sales to China amid trade tensions.
The trade agreement requires China to buy at least 12 million metric tons of US soybeans in the last two months of 2025 and maintain annual purchases of 25 million metric tons through 2028. However, so far this year, China has only imported a fraction of the pledged volume, with US Department of Agriculture data revealing just 232,000 tons shipped since the agreement was announced. The premium prices paid by Cofco, significantly higher than competing Brazilian supplies, and a 13% Chinese import tariff on US soybeans compared to smaller tariffs on South American soybeans continue to challenge full implementation.
American farmers, who experienced severe losses due to a near halt in Chinese purchases beginning mid-2025, see this as a hopeful development amid continuing uncertainty. The trade war cost US soybean growers an estimated $5.7 billion in lost exports to China through October. Although a rebound in exports this year is expected to reach around 18 million metric tons, this remains substantially below 2024’s record 26.8 million tons. Brazilian and Argentine producers have filled much of the gap during the recent hiatus, adding competitive pressure on US agricultural exports.
US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins expressed confidence in the deal's fulfillment and the broader benefits for farming communities, emphasizing the importance of the agreement for sustaining rural economies and agricultural production.
This renewed buying activity represents both an economic boon and a cautious step toward stabilizing agricultural trade relations between the world's two largest economies. The focus now rests on whether China will continue purchasing at expected levels amidst the ongoing tariff landscape and competitive global soybean market dynamics.
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